Property & Finance Podcast #40: Solving Australia’s Housing Supply Crisis

In this episode of Property & Finance, Theo Chambers is joined by Luke Berry, Founder and CEO of Thirdi Group, a residential developer with over $5 billion in gross realisation value currently in the pipeline across Sydney and London, to unpack why Australia can’t seem to build enough homes and what it will actually take to fix it.

Luke brings a rare on-the-ground perspective as one of the developers building through the crisis he’s discussing. Theo and Luke explore why supply has stalled despite years of policy attention, breaking down the economics that determine whether a development gets built at all, from soaring construction costs and tighter financing to the thin margins developers actually work with. 

The conversation also digs into government policy at both federal and state level, including the new NSW Low and Mid-Rise (LMR) zoning reforms, State Significant Development pathways, and why proximity to transport infrastructure is proving far more effective than blanket zoning changes. They close on a genuinely optimistic note, discussing the structural shifts, from build-to-rent to generational wealth transfer, that could help rebalance the market over the next two decades. 

Key insights include: 

• Why Australia’s housing shortage has become a structural, decades-long problem rather than a short-term cyclical issue
• The real reasons developers aren’t building enough homes, from red tape to rising costs
• How construction costs (up 30-40% since COVID) and financing hurdles are squeezing development feasibility
• Why developers typically need to demonstrate a 20% return on costs just to get funding approved
• What’s working and what isn’t in current government housing policy 
• A breakdown of the NSW Low and Mid-Rise (LMR) zoning reforms and where they do and don’t make sense
• Why transport-oriented development is delivering better outcomes than density changes alone
• Reasons for optimism, including build-to-rent, co-living and the coming generational wealth transfer

If you’re an investor, homebuyer or simply want to understand what’s really driving Australia’s housing shortage, this episode offers a rare, practical view from inside the development process.