Australia’s population growth has eased to 1.8% in the 12 months to September 2024, according to the latest release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of declining annual growth, signalling a shift in the demographic momentum that has long supported strong housing demand.
But what does this mean for the property market—and is the current slowdown enough to take the pressure off home prices?
Population and Property Prices: The Last Five Years
Despite recent moderation, population growth over the past five years has remained significant:
• In 2019, Australia’s population sat at 25.4 million.
• By September 2024, it had grown to 27.3 million, an increase of almost 1.9 million people.
• While migration stalled during 2020–2021 due to COVID-19, the rebound in 2022–2023 brought record-high net overseas migration, before easing again in 2024.
At the same time, property prices have surged, despite demographic softening:
• The real house price index reached 122.9 in Q3 2024, up from pandemic dips and showing consistent growth.
• According to CoreLogic, median dwelling values in February 2025 were:
○ Sydney: $1,186,459 (+5.17% YoY)
○ Melbourne: $772,561 (-0.82% YoY)
○ Brisbane: $894,425 (+11.03% YoY)
○ Adelaide: $822,201 (+13.07% YoY)
○ Perth: $807,933 (+17.60% YoY)
These price increases are not driven purely by population growth but by a severe imbalance in housing supply.
Housing Supply Not Keeping Up
Even with population growth slowing, the demand for housing continues to outpace supply due to:
• Low building approvals, particularly for medium-density housing.
• Labour shortages, reduced construction productivity, and rising material costs.
• A backlog of stalled or delayed construction projects due to supply chain disruptions.
This has led to increased competition for existing homes, pushing prices higher and worsening the affordability crisis—particularly for first-home buyers.
Government Measures to Increase Housing Supply
In response to growing pressure, federal and state governments have rolled out a suite of initiatives:
Federal Budget 2025 Highlights
• Two-Year Ban on Foreign Purchases of Existing Homes:
From 1 April 2025, foreign investors (excluding those contributing to new housing supply) will be prohibited from purchasing established homes. This measure is designed to reduce speculative demand and free up more stock for local buyers.
• Audit Program on Land Banking:
The ATO has been allocated $8.9 million to identify and discourage land banking by foreign owners—pushing for faster development of vacant land.
• $54 Million for Prefabricated and Modular Housing:
Designed to modernise and accelerate construction, these funds support off-site manufacturing solutions that can reduce build times and costs.
• Apprenticeship Support for Construction Trades:
From 1 July 2025, eligible apprentices will receive up to $10,000 in financial support, helping to build the workforce needed to meet national housing targets.
• Help to Buy Scheme Expansion:
$800 million committed to expand access to the scheme, allowing more Australians to buy homes with lower deposits and shared equity.
NSW Government Reforms
• Planning Reform:
Zoning and density changes to accelerate development approvals around key transport corridors and high-growth areas.
• Land Release Programs:
Unlocking government-owned and underutilised land to support medium- and high-density housing.
These efforts aim to support the National Housing Accord target of building 1.2 million new homes by 2029—an ambitious goal given current construction bottlenecks.
How Shore Financial Supports Home Buyers
At Shore Financial, we understand the challenges facing today’s buyers—from affordability pressures to navigating complex government policies. Here’s how we help:
• Tailored Loan Solutions:
We work with over 70 lenders to source the most competitive loan products suited to each client’s goals, whether you’re a first-home buyer, investor, or upgrader.
• Up-to-Date Market Guidance:
We stay on top of market trends, rate movements, and government initiatives so our clients can make fully informed decisions.
• End-to-End Support:
From pre-approval to settlement, our brokers are with you every step of the way, making the buying journey less stressful and more strategic.
• Sleep Soundly Promise:
We offer annual loan reviews to ensure our clients stay on the most competitive deal—year after year.
While population growth may be moderating, the housing market continues to face supply constraints and affordability challenges. Government measures will take time to filter through, and in the meantime, working with an experienced mortgage adviser like Shore Financial can help you find the right opportunity and finance solution in a competitive landscape.
Want to know if you’re in the best possible loan for your situation?
Reach out to Shore Financial today and let’s talk about your next move.
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